Dream on
Fully one quarter of 25- to 29-year-olds expect to retire before
age 55. The youthful optimism drops off later. A recent International Longevity
Center/Harris poll found that just 9 percent in the 40- to 49-age group
plan to be in the hammock by 55.
Seniors depend on checks
While 20 percent of seniors
are relatively affluent, reports from the Center on Budget & Policy
Priorities say most others are dependent on Social Security. The myth of
the "greedy geezers," says the Center, is just that, a myth.
In 1997, the average Social
Security retirement benefit was $765 a month. Yet according to the Center's
analysis, the program provided at least half of total income for more than
55 percent of seniors and at least 75 percent of the total income of more
than a third.
Based on Census Bureau data,
the program lifted nearly half of the 65-and-older population out of poverty,
cutting the elderly's poverty rate from 47.6 percent to 11.9.
Much wealth, little restraint
Consumer spending is powering
upward, fueled by job security, income growth and capital gains. The U.S.
Federal Reserve estimates that households spend 3 to 5 percent of every
dollar of new wealth. Those gains over the past two years have added significantly
to consumer spending.
During the past year, consumer
buying grew 5.5 percent, the strongest yearly pace in 15 years. In the
second quarter of 1999, retail stores posted sales gains of more than 7
percent over the previous year.
At the same time, the
savings rate is on the negative side for the first time since the Great
Depression.
Remember these retirement costs
For people in their middle
years, retirement may seem to be half a lifetime away. But those years
go by quickly.
A survey by the Employee
Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) shows that only half of workers have
bothered to analyze their retirement needs. People are saving, but they
are saving blindly, according to EBRI. Even those who do work out a retirement
budget tend to be overly optimistic.
Don Bladin, president of
the American Savings Education Council, says 88 percent of those who have
worked out a realistic retirement budget are setting money aside. Only
61 percent of those who haven't done the math are saving enough.
People in their 50s have
to replace rough estimates with detailed figures.
The figures should account for inflation, taxes, and other savings
drains. Those could include the cost of health insurance to cover early
retirees before Medicare and age 65. Even after that, will you have expensive
drugs which are not covered by Medicare? If you become disabled, what costs
would not be covered by a long-term care policy (if you even have one)?
Will your savings last to age 85+?
If you have projected
retirement expenses at 70 to 80 percent of current income, that figure
might not be enough. Advisors writing in Fortune say you should plan
to spend the same amount you spend now, especially in the first ten
years of retirement. That is when you will want to travel.
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